From Medals to Momentum:
Can Better International Math Olympiad Scores Drive Change?

This paper analyzes the performance and outcomes of countries in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) from the early 2000s to the 2020s, using a novel dataset of participants’ career outcomes. Cross-country data with a focus on six case study countries — Cuba, Georgia, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and Tunisia — forms the basis of the analysis, yielding three key results:

• Country rankings are highly persistent, with 90% of the top third remaining in the top third after 20 years.
• Despite this, about 10.7% of countries from the middle group, including France, Italy, and Mongolia, moved to the top third, and 40% of countries in the bottom group, including the Philippines and Tunisia, improved to the middle third.
• Among the countries that improved, later cohorts are more likely to achieve higher scores, win medals, pursue undergraduate education abroad, and attend Top 100 universities.