Every generation produces a handful of scientists—Darwin, Curie, Einstein, Feynman—who transform how we understand the world. But how do we find the next ones? Despite decades of investment, we know surprisingly little about how to identify extraordinary scientific talent early. Spotting this talent sooner could help societies better nurture breakthrough potential, expand opportunity, and accelerate scientific progress. Here we show that teenage science competitions offer a powerful signal. Although International Science Olympiad medalists represent only about 1,000 students each year, they go onto win 10% of the world’s most prestigious science prizes—at 20 times the rate of top university graduates. A gold medal at the International Mathematical Olympiad is especially predictive: 3 in 100 winners go on to win major prizes, making them 60 times more likely than even MIT alumni to produce scientific discoveries. The ability to solve complex problems as a teenager could be one of the strongest predictors of future scientific impact. These findings call for a rethinking of how we identify and invest in the minds that will shape tomorrow’s science.
